AIs Predicting Stocks?
ChatGPT may be able to predict stock movements
ChatGPT may be able to predict stock movements. Alejandro Lopez Lira is a University of Florida professor who uses AI to invest, and he has published a paper and a book on this. Apparently, if you use ChatGPT to parse news headlines for whether they’re good or bad for a stock, ChatGPT’s ability to predict the direction of the next day’s returns was much better than random.
You may be thinking that doesn’t make sense. After all, aren’t stocks a reflection of the value of the company? Why would any news, good or bad, make any difference at all?
Sadly, there is a great deal of speculation in the stock market. In the long term stocks will more or less follow the value of a company, but there is a lot of volatility that follows the news cycle, or the actions of large hedge funds. Or maybe this is not sad at all. Maybe it means that if you pick a solid stock, then you will be okay in the long term, and in the short term you can make some money on the volatility?
I have tested this idea with small dollars, waiting for a good solid stock to fall, just because of the news cycle, and bought it. And the idea did work. Or did it? Maybe the ups and downs are just randomness. Or the actions of huge hedge funds? My nephew says that if you buy any decent index fund, and wait 15 years, then you will make money. And a lot of people agree with that. But at my age, I really don’t want to wait for 15 years, because I might not be alive then. But knowing that in the long run, the stock will likely rebound is reassuring.
I think, that after some reading on the stock market, you may agree with me that it’s all pretty complicated. So what if an AI really can do it for you? How great would that be?
How does this work?
It looks at data and understands the macroeconomic environment. With recent policy changes, in March it showed some reaction to news, and it went into a more risk-averse stance, going more conservative stance, into Treasuries and Berkshire Hathaway. It rebalances once per month.
Grok (up 3.55%) and Deepseek (up 3.9%) also have this ability but are not doing as well as “portfolio GPT” which has returned 11.45% year to date (and it is only June). Grok and Deepseek have not been doing this as long, so Prof Lopez-Lira believes it’s too soon to tell, and all three are probably good.
A Caveat
Before you run out and spend money, let me just point out that the news cycle is up and down a lot, since they turned news into ‘entertainment’. And a lot of what passes for news (facts), is opinion and sensationalism. When I took journalism, we called this ‘yellow journalism’ and it was frowned on. Today it is quite normal. And inflammatory. Sensational. Because they want to make money on this new type of ‘entertainment’. So if some “news” person has an opinion that makes a stock go up, someone else’s opinion might make it go down later that day. In fact, sometimes Fox News and CNN have opposite opinions at the same time! What would an AI make of that?
Is Any of This Ok?
We do have some computers that make stock trades today. And it looks like AIs will be pretty good at this also. But should we allow this? Is it okay, that computers can compete with humans head-to-head in this activity? Recall that computers do not have to sleep, and can work much faster than humans can. Should we worry that they cause some 3am meltdown of the stock market? What if a few of them start short selling and this cues others to do the same. Might that cause some middle-of-the-night problems?
I don’t know. In the meantime, I’m going to learn more about this before they make it illegal.
If you want to play with this, you could make a spreadsheet and track some stock picks that an AI recommends. You don’t have to spend money to do this. In fact, I recommend doing this as a paper exercise, not for real.
Summary
So you can use AIs to get stock info. You can even use an app called Autopilot and it will let you follow people like Pelosi (up +35%), Congress (up 28%) , Buffet, or the GPT Portfolio (+18%) and other successful traders, and connect it to your brokerage account, and it will invest for you. You can read more on that below. Or you can read on Reddit where people are trying this.
In past years, I have managed to lose money in the stock market, while everyone around me appeared to be making money. I can tell you why various methods do not work.
-following Congressional stock picks doesn’t work (Too much delay. They have 1 month to disclose their stock changes. So you miss the window).
-following Nancy Pelosi doesn’t work (same reason).
-following CEO/CTO of companies doesn’t work (They must disclose faster than Congress but there is still delay where you miss the window. Also they have mandatory buys sometimes).
So I have not been brave (or stupid?) enough to try this new idea yet. Just because they follow successful investors, does not mean that You will be successful, because there is a built-in delay. And timing matters.
Experiment #1
If you go to chatgpt.com and ask, “what are the highest rated stocks currently from portfolio gpt” then it will give you something like this:
As of June 12, 2025, here are some of the highest-rated stocks currently recommended by AI-driven platforms like ChatGPT and the GPT 2.0 Portfolio, based on their performance, market positioning, and growth potential:
finbold.com
🔝 Top AI-Recommended Stocks
1. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Price: $480.37 <<< this went to 489 by 5:40 today
Market Cap: $2.79 trillion
P/E Ratio: 28.88
EPS: $12.93
Highlights: Strong performance in cloud computing and AI integration, benefiting from its partnership with OpenAI.
thetimes.co.uk+5finbold.com+5markets.businessinsider.com+5
businessinsider.com
2. Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
Price: $319.36 <<< this went up to 329 then down to 318.79 by 5:40 today
Market Cap: $1.03 trillion
P/E Ratio: 70.45
EPS: $4.53
Highlights: Leading the electric vehicle market with innovations like Full Self-Driving and the upcoming Cybertruck.
finbold.com
3. Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
Price: $175.97 <<< this went to 175.58 by 5:40 today
Market Cap: $1.88 trillion
P/E Ratio: 16.91
EPS: $9.15
Highlights: Dominant in digital advertising and cloud services, with significant investments in AI through Google Bard.
ft.com+5finance.yahoo.com+5businessinsider.com+5
businessinsider.com+15finbold.com+15finbold.com+15
4. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
Price: $213.24 <<< this went to 213.19 by 5:40pm (volatility evened out)
Market Cap: $1.09 trillion
P/E Ratio: 59.82
EPS: $3.56
Highlights: A leader in e-commerce and cloud computing, with a growing presence in AI and logistics.
finbold.com+9investors.com+9finance.yahoo.com+9
finbold.com
5. Meta Platforms Inc. (META)
Price: $324.00 <<< Very Odd. This started 693,went to 693 by 5:40 today. It
was never near $324. I guess this is a hallucination?
Market Cap: $877 billion
P/E Ratio: 22.50
EPS: $14.40
Highlights: Pioneering in virtual reality and the metaverse, with a strong focus on AI development.
finbold.com+9thetimes.co.uk+9theaustralian.com.au+9
finbold.com
These stocks are favored for their leadership in AI, cloud computing, and innovative technologies. They align with the GPT 2.0 Portfolio's strategy, which includes top-rated picks like UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), and Qualcomm (QCOM), selected based on AI-driven evaluations.
finbold.com
If you're interested in exploring more AI-driven investment strategies or need
assistance in building a diversified portfolio, feel free to ask! Now go online and write down the stock names prices in your spreadsheet. Look again once a day, and see what happens. My little experiment yielded one $9 gain, three that were a wash, and one weird hallucination that makes me question this whole idea.
Experiment #2
what are the highest rated stocks currently from portfolio gpt. What do you think about berkshire hathaway
ChatGPT said:
Highest-Rated Stocks from Portfolio GPT
As of June 2025, Portfolio GPT highlights several top-rated stocks based on AI-driven analyses and performance metrics:
NRG Energy (NRG) <<< Did go up 1.93 today.
Year-to-Date Performance: +74%
Highlights: Following a transformative $12 billion acquisition of LS Power Equity Advisors, NRG has doubled its generation capacity to 25 gigawatts, primarily in the Northeast and Texas. This strategic move has led to a raised five-year compound annual EPS growth target from 10% to 14%, with projected capital returns of $9.1 billion over five years.
investors.com
Western Digital (WDC) <<<< went up .10 today
IBD Composite Rating: 96 (outperforms 96% of stocks)
Highlights: Western Digital has shown strong earnings growth and institutional buying interest. Despite a recent flat earnings report, its high composite rating suggests potential for future gains.
investors.com
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)<< went up but this was price of BRK.A not BRK.B
maybe my prompt confused it. I should have
stated either BRK.A or BRK.B to be clear.
Current Price: $734,765
Highlights: Berkshire Hathaway has experienced a 15.3% increase year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500. The company maintains a diversified portfolio, including significant stakes in Apple, Bank of America, and Occidental Petroleum.
reddit.com+2barrons.com+2barrons.com+2
reddit.com
Berkshire Hathaway's Outlook
Berkshire Hathaway's stock has recently entered a 10% correction zone, influenced by Warren Buffett's announcement to step down as CEO by year-end and potential impacts on its $300 billion cash reserves. Despite this, the company remains up 7% for 2025....Experiment #3
Remember that you do not have to reinvent how to do this. Read how Portfolio GPT project works and mirror that. Doing some of this gave me a 78 macroeconomic score for today, which I suppose means Bullish. Today was bullish, with S&P, NASDAQ, and DOW were all up. And that makes me question my experiments. On a bullish day, a lot of stuff goes up. So it doesn’t need a rocket scientist or an AI to predict that. That said, the AI is behaving as expected so far.
References
Morningstar | A professor testing ChatGPT's, DeepSeek's and Grok's stock-picking skills suggests stockbrokers should worry — June 9, 2025 — Is artificial intelligence coming for the jobs of Wall Street traders? An assistant professor of finance at the University of Florida, Aleja...
Market speculators get an edge through finance professor’s new book — August 28, 2024 — With constant developments in the field of finance, it can be tricky to predict what’s coming next. Fortunately, Alejandro Lopez-Lira, ass...
ChatGPT may be able to predict stock movements, finance professors show — April 13, 2023 — In a new working paper, Assistant Professor Alejandro Lopez-Lira and Emerson-Merrill Lynch Associate Professor Yuehua Tang find that large
The GPT Portfolio White Paper https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BMCAyP6f4RYk5oPuB-2CXRBxRe5uyz3CIavX311E5K4/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.tun4oq6m688g
Autopilot web page “Choose a Portfolio. Connect your Brokerage. That's it.” You can follow Pelosi, Congress, Jim Simmons, etc. https://www.joinautopilot.com/
Great article! I’ve played the pump and dump game. I haven’t used Ai for it yet. Perhaps if it’s prompted to show who is flagrantly influencing a crypto or meme coin, watch that. The last time Elon pumped DOGE coin, I made 3,000.00 when I sold at the .50 level. It just feels like nothing is real value it’s all hype. How do we properly prompt for that type of marker? Your article states how “yellow journalism” is used regularly today, that’s good and bad. It may explain a narrative that we can scrape and prompt to
Find what they really want to move that day? Day trading is exhausting though. And the rest of my portfolio is small. I
Just learned a little, tried it over the pandemic- and finally made a profit last year.